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A team’s current rating reflects any injuries and rest days in effect at the moment of the team's next game. A team’s full-strength rating assumes all of its key players are in the lineup. These are combined with up-to-date depth charts - tracking injuries, trades, changes in playing time and other player transactions - to generate talent estimates for each team. Our player-based RAPTOR forecast doesn’t account for wins and losses it is based entirely on our NBA player projections, which estimate each player’s future performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players.

Denver wont get the Warriors’ best shot tonight, but a depleted Golden State will have enough to cover a 12.5-point spread.How this works: These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. According to Action Network’s public betting data, the Warriors are getting a slight majority of bets (53%) but a significant portion of the money (75%) at the time of writing.īe sure to monitor injury news, if any of the Warriors’ top players suit up, this number could dip slightly. And that’s reflected in the betting splits right now. Warriors-Nuggets Pickĭespite how good this Nuggets team is straight up, especially at home, they are overvalued against the spread. In home games, the Nuggets are 16-10-1 ATS but just 3-3 in their past six games. Denver is 26-24-1 ATS on the season and during that 19-3 stretch 13-8-1 ATS good but not great. The Nuggets are not as dominant when it comes to covering spreads. Right Now BetMGM is reporting the Nuggets have the highest ticket count to win it all at 13.5%. They are a well-balance team with the best offense in the league (119.1, 4.6 points per 100 possessions above league average, according to Cleaning the Glass) and with a defense that’s good enough to keep them afloat. The Nuggets are dominant team at home where they lead the league in win percentage (.852, 23-4 SU) and Net Rating (+10.7), per NBA Advanced Stats. Denver has lost three of its past five games, but before that they pulled off a 19-3 stretch. They sport the conference’s best record and have the league’s best player in Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets have been the class of the Western Conference to this point. Not to mention this would be their third straight road game. While the injury report hasn’t come out for the Warriors yet, I would expect that to be the case since the Warriors are playing on a back-to-back after an overtime game. Such a lopsided spread would indicate that the Warriors will likely sit, Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green tonight. This spread opened at 9.5 and quickly moved to double digits overnight. Over their recent stretch, they are covering the spread 3.1 points, according to Bet Labs. That’s an impressive turnaround for a team that was 4-15 ATS on the road to open the season, failing to cover the spread by 9.1 points on average.

They are 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS since the start of January and Curry is averaging 28.7 points per game on the road since he’s been back on the court. The Warriors seem to have their act together on the road since the calendar turned to 2023. Even with their struggles, the Warriors have the second-shortest odds to win the Western Conference at various books - they are +450 at DraftKings, only the Nuggets have shorter odds at +350. But a poor road record and injury to Stephen Curry have the Warriors looking like a Play-In Tournament team and not a contender. Since Christmas, they are 11-7 SU and 10-8 ATS.Įarly in the season, there was a feeling that they would be the team to beat in the West despite where the Warriors finish. They are 6-4 straight up and against the spread in their last 10 games. The Golden State Warriors are starting to make their playoff push.